Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Av. Center for Coastal and Oceanic Geology Studies (CECO), Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), Av. Abstract The forecast of wave variables are important for several applications that depend on a better description of the ocean state. Due to the chaotic behaviour of the differential equations which model this problem, a well know strategy to overcome the difficulties is basically to run several simulations, by for instance, varying the initial condition, and averaging the result of each of these, creating an ensemble. Moreover, in the last few years, considering the amount of available data and the computational power increase, machine learning algorithms have been applied as surrogate to traditional numerical models, yielding comparative or better results. In this work, we present a methodology to create an ensemble of different artificial neural networks architectures, namely, MLP, RNN, LSTM, CNN and a hybrid CNN-LSTM, which aims to predict significant wave height on six different locations in the Brazilian coast. The networks are trained using NOAA's numerical reforecast data and target the residual between observational data and the numerical model output. A new strategy to create the training and target datasets is demonstrated. Introduction Numerical simulations of both weather and ocean parameters rely on the evolution of nonlinear dynamical systems that have a high sensitivity on initial conditions. Considering that errors in the observations and analysis are present, and therefore in the initial conditions, the concept of a unique deterministic solution of the governing equations becomes fragile [1, 2].

Magnetic soft continuum robots are capable of bending with remote control in confined space environments, and they have been applied in various bioengineering contexts. As one type of ferromagnetic soft continuums, the Magnetically Induced Metamorphic Materials (MIMMs)-based continuum (MC) exhibits similar bending behaviors. Based on the characteristics of its base material, MC is flexible in modifying unit stiffness and convenient in molding fabrication. However, recent studies on magnetic continuum robots have primarily focused on one or two design parameters, limiting the development of a comprehensive magnetic continuum bending model. In this work, we constructed graded-stiffness MCs (GMCs) and developed a numerical model for GMCs' bending performance, incorporating four key parameters that determine their performance. The simulated bending results were validated with real bending experiments in four different categories: varying magnetic field, cross-section, unit stiffness, and unit length. The graded-stiffness design strategy applied to GMCs prevents sharp bending at the fixed end and results in a more circular curvature. We also trained an expansion model for GMCs' bending performance that is highly efficient and accurate compared to the simulation process. An extensive library of bending prediction for GMCs was built using the trained model.

This paper presents a design for a drop tower test to evaluate a numerical model for a structurally reconfigurable spacecraft with actuatable joints, referred to as a transformable spacecraft. A mock-up robot for a 3U-sized transformable spacecraft is designed to fit in a limited time and space of the microgravity environment available in the drop tower. The robot performs agile reorientation, referred to as nonholonomic attitude control, by actuating joints in a particular manner. To adapt to the very short duration of microgravity in the drop tower test, a successive joint actuation maneuver is optimized to maximize the amount of attitude reorientation within the time constraint. The robot records the angular velocity history of all four bodies, and the data is analyzed to evaluate the accuracy of the numerical model. We confirm that the constructed numerical model sufficiently replicates the robot's motion and show that the post-experiment model corrections further improve the accuracy of the numerical simulations. Finally, the difference between this drop tower test and the actual orbit demonstration is discussed to show the prospect.

The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods still have certain limitations, especially in the most extreme MHWs. In this study, to address these issues, based on the physical nature of MHWs, we created a novel deep learning neural network that is capable of accurate 10-day MHW forecasting. Our framework significantly improves the forecast ability of extreme MHWs through two specially designed modules inspired by numerical models: a coupler and a probabilistic data argumentation. The coupler simulates the driving effect of atmosphere on MHWs while the probabilistic data argumentation approaches significantly boost the forecast ability of extreme MHWs based on the idea of ensemble forecast. Compared with traditional numerical prediction, our framework has significantly higher accuracy and requires fewer computational resources. What's more, explainable AI methods show that wind forcing is the primary driver of MHW evolution and reveal its relation with air-sea heat exchange. Overall, our model provides a framework for understanding MHWs' driving processes and operational forecasts in the future.

The increasingly populated cities of the 21st Century face the challenge of being sustainable and resilient spaces for their inhabitants. However, climate change, among other problems, makes these objectives difficult to achieve. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon that occurs in cities, increasing their thermal stress, is one of the stumbling blocks to achieve a more sustainable city. The ability to estimate temperatures with a high degree of accuracy allows for the identification of the highest priority areas in cities where urban improvements need to be made to reduce thermal discomfort. In this work we explore the usefulness of image-to-image deep neural networks (DNNs) for correlating spatial and meteorological variables of a urban area with street-level air temperature. The air temperature at street-level is estimated both spatially and temporally for a specific use case, and compared with existing, well-established numerical models. Based on the obtained results, deep neural networks are confirmed to be faster and less computationally expensive alternative for ground-level air temperature compared to numerical models.

Although numerical models provide accurate solutions for ice sheet dynamics based on physics laws, they accompany intensified computational demands to solve partial differential equations. In recent years, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widely used as statistical emulators for those numerical models. However, since CNNs operate on regular grids, they cannot represent the refined meshes and computational efficiency of finite-element numerical models. Therefore, instead of CNNs, this study adopts an equivariant graph convolutional network (EGCN) as an emulator for the ice sheet dynamics modeling. EGCN reproduces ice thickness and velocity changes in the Helheim Glacier, Greenland, and Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, with 260 times and 44 times faster computation time, respectively. Compared to the traditional CNN and graph convolutional network, EGCN shows outstanding accuracy in thickness prediction near fast ice streams by preserving the equivariance to the translation and rotation of graphs.

Possible unfavourable scenarios span from excess water inflow or a damaging of the Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) to a total collapse of the tunnel [1]. To avoid potential risks, the imaging of voids, faults, fluid areas, erratic boulders or other changes in material is essential. Exploratory drillings only provide an image of the geological parameters in the near-field of the borehole and lack in showing the detailed geological structure. Thus, acoustic analysis is a better choice as it offers the opportunity to obtain a detailed image of the soil with the help of seismic waves. Propagating through the ground, seismic waves are reflected, refracted, scattered and converted; resulting in a detailed fingerprint of the actual structure. Most of the techniques used nowadays for the detection of anomalies rely on travel time measurements and migration techniques, considering only compressional waves.

In this paper, we propose a generic algorithm to train machine learning-based subgrid parametrizations online, i.e., with a posteriori loss functions, but for non-differentiable numerical solvers. The proposed approach leverages a neural emulator to approximate the reduced state-space solver, which is then used to allow gradient propagation through temporal integration steps. We apply this methodology on a single layer quasi-geostrophic system with topography, known to be highly unstable in around 500 temporal iterations with offline strategies. Using our algorithm, we are able to train a parametrization that recovers most of the benefits of online strategies without having to compute the gradient of the original solver. It is demonstrated that training the neural emulator and parametrization components separately with different loss quantities is necessary in order to minimize the propagation of approximation biases. Experiments on emulator architectures with different complexities also indicates that emulator performance is key in order to learn an accurate parametrization. This work is a step towards learning parametrization with online strategies for realistic climate models.

This paper presents an ensemble data assimilation method using the pseudo ensembles generated by denoising diffusion probabilistic model. Since the model is trained against noisy and sparse observation data, this model can produce divergent ensembles close to observations. Thanks to the variance in generated ensembles, our proposed method displays better performance than the well-established ensemble data assimilation method when the simulation model is imperfect.

Muscle health is a critical component of overall health and quality of life. However, current measures of skeletal muscle health take limited account of microstructural variations within muscle, which play a crucial role in mediating muscle function. To address this, we present a physics-inspired, machine learning-based framework for the non-invasive and in vivo estimation of microstructural organization in skeletal muscle from diffusion-weighted MRI (dMRI). To reduce the computational expense associated with direct numerical simulations of dMRI physics, a polynomial meta-model is developed that accurately represents the input/output relationships of a high-fidelity numerical model. This meta-model is used to develop a Gaussian process (GP) model to provide voxel-wise estimates and confidence intervals of microstructure organization in skeletal muscle. Given noise-free data, the GP model accurately estimates microstructural parameters. In the presence of noise, the diameter, intracellular diffusion coefficient, and membrane permeability are accurately estimated with narrow confidence intervals, while volume fraction and extracellular diffusion coefficient are poorly estimated and exhibit wide confidence intervals. A reduced-acquisition GP model, consisting of one-third the diffusion-encoding measurements, is shown to predict parameters with similar accuracy to the original model. The fiber diameter and volume fraction estimated by the reduced GP model is validated via histology, with both parameters within their associated confidence intervals, demonstrating the capability of the proposed framework as a promising non-invasive tool for assessing skeletal muscle health and function.